Latin America begins 2021 with great challenges in terms of health, politics, economics and social issues. And these challenges are taking place in a fragile social context that deepens month by month.
Politically the ruling class must face a marathon and an overwhelming series of electoral processes in our region. There are five presidential and legislative elections ( Peru, Chile, Nicaragua and Honduras), three legislative elections ( El Salvador and Mexico), Chile will also elect constituents, and there will be a series of local elections in Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Mexico and Venezuela. And this is taking place in a social context marked by the pandemic and the mismanagement of the health situation in much of our region People feel angry towards their representatives and this emotion in most cases demands changes.
Just as the 1990 s were marked by right-wing governments and the following decades turned to the center and left, we still do not know which movements will be generated in politics by the social discontent towards today’s politics and economic crisis.
The economy is going through a critical period with a severe contraction of the regional GDP in 2020 (average of 7 7 according to ECLAC data), 40 million new poor and growing unemployment. And although the IMF forecasts a 4 1 growth for Latin America in 2021 this growth will not be enough to recover the loss suffered during 2020.
But it is not all bad news, because developed countries (our markets) have more important growth forecasts China ended 2020 with positive growth and has a growth forecast for 2021 of 7 9 while the European Union and the US have positive growth forecasts. The expected growth in 2021 should not overcome the losses of 2020 but vaccination initiatives should indicate a recovery path.
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